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Road to Recovery: Restoring growth in the region could be a long and difficult process
Policies for recoveryThe analysis of the interaction of the financial system and the economy has several policy implications. First, it provides a rationale for an expansionary macroeconomic stance. In the last few months real interest rates have come down and fiscal policies have been relaxed, steps that should help reduce the contractionary effects on the economy. But the scope for expansionary policies within the region (outside Japan) may be greatly circumscribed without external financial assistance. And without aggressive expansionary policies, there may be a continued downward slide, and a slower recovery. Second, quick and decisive actions to strengthen the financial system are necessary to restore confidence. But they can be done in a manner that continues credit to exporting firms and maintains banks "informational capital," their knowledge of who they can best lend money to and how they should supervise them, and, at the same time, pays due attention to moral hazard concerns. Specific programs to provide credit to those sectors most adversely affected or which can jump-start the economy are essential; these include agriculture, small and medium-sized enterprises and exporters. Third, reforms need to be cognizant of capital-asset values, which have been battered by large unanticipated changes in exchange rates, land and real estate prices, etc., increasing uncertainty and dampening economic activity. One implication: some structural reforms that might be good in the long run can have disastrous consequences in the short run. If the U.S., for instance, had tried to eliminate distortions in agricultural and energy prices in the mid-1980s, the process would have worsened the Savings and Loan crisis. Fourth, corporate restructuring is essential. But this should consider that even a well-managed firm can go bankrupt as a result of large devaluations, increases in interest rates, and falls in demand. We must take great care in identifying firms to survive and in assessing their financial needs. Systemic bankruptcies, with creditors of bankrupt firms also going bankrupt, will make corporate restructuring all the more difficult. Prospects for East AsiaThe export boom that some thought should have followed the large devaluations has not materialized. Meanwhile growing excess capacity in many industries, associated with low spending by consumers and investors, is leading to lower export prices. So, even if export volumes pick up, the dollar revenues may still stagnate. The continuing uncertainties in the region will stymie the return of capital flows, and there are reasons to believe that capital may continue to leave the region, even if confidence were to be restored. Asian investors had invested heavily in their own and neighboring countries; their portfolios were less diversified. Now, they may seek more balanced portfolios, and that may mean more capital from certain countries heading to the U.S. and Europe. Balancing these concerns are Asias underlying strengths which supported growth over three decades, including high savings rates, a well-educated labor force, high levels of technology and an outward orientation. The Future of globalizationThe East Asian crisis, following on the "miraculous" recent decades, has one again shown that globalization is double-edged, bringing risks with opportunities. If East Asia had not been outward-looking it would not have enjoyed the considerable benefits brought by trade and foreign direct investment, which is comparatively stable and brings with it not just capital but also technology and access to foreign markets. The crisis reinforces the belief that countries will benefit most from globalization when they have transparent, robust and well-regulated financial markets. This cannot be accomplished by overnight deregulation. In the rush to open East Asia to free movements of short-term capital, many people had warned that these flows could be very volatile. This warning was fulfilled in East Asia, which suffered an outflow of over $100 billion in the last months of 1997 roughly 10% of the gross domestic product. Few economies could withstand a shock of this magnitude. More generally, there is little evidence that full capital-account liberalization contributes to investment or growth. What is clear is that short-term capital flows increase volatility, which is bad for growth. Our research shows that countries which have gone further in financial liberalization, including capital-account liberalization, are more likely to experience a financial crisis. Our research also demonstrates the large adverse effects of financial crises on growth. At the same time, in prudent countries increased short-term debt is matched by increases in reserves: a perverse process whereby developing countries borrow money at high interest rates from industrial-country banks only to relend it (as currency reserves) at low interest rates to the Treasuries of these same industrial countries. Policies need to be designed which will both inhibit the flow of volatile short-term capital and, at the same time, encourage long-term capital, especially foreign direct investment. Three sets of policies are now being widely discussed. The first is to eliminate distortionary policies which directly encourage short-term capital or do so indirectly, by restraining long-term capital. The second is strengthening the financial sector by making borrowers and lenders pay the full costs of their risks.This includes imposing risk-adjusted deposit premiums and risk-adjusted capital adequacy standards; if the bank lends to a risky firm, it will be forced to put up more capital. The regulatory structure will have to be adapted to the situation of the country, including its capacities for supervision; direct restrictions, such as exposure to foreign liabilities and real estate lending may have to be imposed. In all countries increased transparency is essential, but we should note that even countries with advanced institutional structures, such as those in Scandinavia, have faced severe financial crises recently. Measures aimed at the banking system may not be enough; after all, two-thirds of Indonesias external debt was borrowed directly by corporations. Thus, the third set of policies are aimed at the corporate borrowing abroad. These include Chiles effective tax on short-term investment (which has not impeded total capital flows, although it has lengthened their maturity), or the reduction (or elimination) of tax deductibility for interest on corporate debt denominated in foreign exchange. Such policies may not work perfectly, but it is better to have a leaky umbrella on a rainy day than no umbrella at all. It is inconsistent to rule out government "interference" with the market while still suppporting bailouts which are, after all, massive government interventions. Whether justified or not, the existence of repeated bailouts nationally and internationally means that individuals and firms do not bear the full costs of the risks they create. As a result, we cannot count on the free market to lead to the best outcome and thus some government action may be required to "correct" private incentives. When firms impose costs on society, for instance through pollution, we tax or regulate them. Similarly, when they impose risks on the entire society by incurring short-term debt, the question should not be whether government action is desirable, but whether we can find actions whose benefits exceed the ancillary costs. There is every reason to believe that we can. |
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